Two outs in the bottom of the 5th inning. Your team is trailing by one run in a 3-2 game and you’re up to bat with the bases loaded – the count is 2-1. Umpire calls strike two on a borderline fastball at the bottom of the zone. With two ABS challenges in your pocket, do you burn one here to bring count from 2-2 to 3-1? I would, in fact I think most teams would. That’s exactly what Rafael Devers thought in a game against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday night. And yet, it came back to bite him.
This scenario is the exact reason that ABS was added to Major League Baseball for the 2026 season. A high leverage moment that could completely change the outcome of a game. Devers understood this, so he challenged the pitch in the hopes of turning an even count in his favor. Here’s the pitch and the subsequent challenge.
What do you think? Was it a good challenge? Yes, the pitch was a strike, but I’ve seen far worse challenges in far worse situations this year. It was a borderline call and I can’t blame Devers for taking a shot here in such a high leverage situation. The only problem? Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno (or the dugout, depending on who was calling the pitches) took notice.
Moreno knew that the umpire was giving them pitches in the bottom part of the zone; he had his evidence from the previous pitch. So what does he call for next? A changeup below the zone – a brilliant example of pitch sequencing in the age of ABS.
Coming out of the hand, the changeup looks exactly like the fastball that Devers took and subsequently challenged. The strategy here is brilliant. In one potential outcome, you get Devers to expand the strike zone due to his failed challenge – either getting the Giants’ first baseman to swing and miss, or inducing contact on a pitch outside the zone. Either way, that outcome is a win.
In another potential outcome, Devers takes the pitch and the result is in the hands of an umpire who just proved that he’s willing to grant borderline calls in the bottom of the zone. Either the pitch is called a ball and the Diamondbacks get another chance in a 3-2 count, or the umpire calls strike three and Devers is forced to make a split second decision between burning both of his team’s challenges on back-to-back pitches, or walking back to the dugout with his head down.
As evidenced by the video above, the latter situation happened – much to the Giants despair. The pitch sequencing here is brilliant from the Diamondbacks. Odds are that Devers would be unwilling to challenge back-to-back pitches and potentially leave his team without any ABS challenges for the rest of the game. He just lost one challenge, he doesn’t want to lose another. As I’ve said a few times already, the umpire just proved he’s willing to call strikes on borderline pitches low. So they go back to the same spot with an offspeed pitch, albeit slightly lower and out of the zone, and get a called strike three to end the inning in a situation that could have changed the course of the game.
The Diamondbacks went on to win the game 7-5. In a high leverage situation, Moreno used the new ABS system to his advantage when calling pitches and was able to get his pitcher out of the inning without giving up a single run. ABS was implemented in the major leagues for this exact kind of situation – bases loaded, two outs, one swing could turn the game upside down. And yet I don’t think anyone expected the system to be used in this way. It’s a terrific advantage for teams that understand how to use it, and adds yet another layer to the game within the game.
All statistics and metrics were pulled from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted
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